DeLTA seminar by Pierre Alquier: Optimistic Estimation of Convergence in Markov Chains with the Average Mixing Time

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Speaker

Pierre Alquier, Professor of Statistics at ESSEC Business School.

Title

Optimistic Estimation of Convergence in Markov Chains with the Average Mixing Time

Abstract

The convergence rate of a Markov chain to its stationary distribution is typically assessed using the concept of total variation mixing time. However, this worst-case measure often yields pessimistic estimates and is challenging to infer from observations. In this talk, we advocate for the use of the average-mixing time as a more optimistic and demonstrably easier-to-estimate alternative. We further illustrate its applicability across a range of settings, from two-point to countable spaces, and discuss some practical implications. We will also highlight the consequences of these results in terms of machine learning on Markov chains.

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